What happened with those elections?
An update on some of the important (non-UK) election results of the past few months
In the English-speaking world, reporting of elections beyond the US and UK tends to feature a couple of breathless articles in the run-up to the polls (“will the populist right bring chaos to [insert name of foreign country here]?”). After the polls you’ll get the quick article where the publication tries not to admit it over-rated the populists’ chances (“chaos in [insert country name here] as election delivers uncertain result”) and then you don’t hear anything again. The world moves on. Who cares who is Prime Minister of the Netherlands, after all?
Well, I do, for one. And I hope here to carry out a small public service, which is to provide you with that update that never seems to arrive. You’ve read about the elections in the Netherlands, South Africa, India, France and many more places. But have you heard what happened next? Here’s a quick run-down on some of the more important ones in a recent period, unprecedented in human history, of electoral activity.
The Netherlands
These elections actually occurred in November 2023, but the process of government formation is usually quite prolonged in that country’s multiparty system. As many will recall, right-wing populist and member of the bad-hair club Geert Wilders was reported as having ‘won’ the election, certainly in the English-speaking press. He certainly won the largest number of votes and seats, but in a system with 15 political parties represented in parliament, his party PVV ended with less than half the seats needed to form a majority. It took until July this year for a new Prime Minister to be sworn in. This person, Dick Schoof is a non-political former civil servant and one-time head of the Dutch intelligence service (a highly-regarded institution which has very close working relationships with the Five Eyes intelligence alliance). The thought of a former head of MI5 ending up as Britain’s Prime Minister is hard to imagine, but civil servants being appointed to head governments in continental Europe are not unheard of, such as during Italy’s economic crisis from 2011-2013.
The presence of Schoof and of the VVD in the coalition will reassure those that have been unnerved by Wilders’ past statements against support for Ukraine. It appears that, whatever Wilders might think privately, The Netherlands is maintaining its strong support for Ukraine, this underlined by the appointment of former Prime Minister Mark Rutte as Secretary-General of NATO and its decision to host the next NATO Summit in 2025.
Finland
In February Alexander Stubb was elected President of Finland. It would be hard to come up with a Finnish president better suited to its new status as a significant military power in NATO: Stubb is a strong liberal internationalist of pronounced Atlanticist views. He is married to an Englishwoman and clearly feels warmly towards this country and the Euro-Atlantic world.
Indonesia
In February, the world’s fourth most populous country elected a new president, although he doesn’t formally take office until October under Indonesia’s very drawn out succession procedures. President-elect Prabowo Subianto is a fairly problematic figure: he was a general during Indonesia’s period of military dictatorship and is the son-in-law of the former dictator Suharto. The outgoing president Joko Widodo clearly endorsed Subianto, not least by having his son be the vice-presidential candidate. It may be that this former general, implicated in extra-judicial killings during the military period, has fully embraced liberal democracy. But this would represent a man in his 70s changing the habits of a lifetime. Indonesia is a pivotal country in the supply of the minerals needed for the energy transition and is also hugely significant in the strategic politics of Asia in the context of China’s continued rise.
Russia
Russia’s presidential election in March was insignificant, in the sense that the outcome was not in doubt. However, it did herald protests against Putin’s power which, given the now totalitarian situation in that country, show that his popularity is limited. Putin’s refusal to groom a successor becomes an increasing problem, even if he is, on paper, able to continue in office until 2036 (at which point he would be older that Joseph Biden. We know how that worked out.)
South Africa
South Africa’s parliamentary elections were held at the end of May. For the first time in its democratic history, the ANC no longer held a majority of seats and was forced to form a coalition with the Democratic Alliance and other smaller parties. Whilst many had become dispirited with the political state of South Africa under an increasingly corrupt and ineffective government, being forced to align in a coalition may be cause for optimism. The view of international investors has been that the new administration will offer positive policies and much needed economic stability. Perhaps most importantly, the most destructive populists in South African politics, Jacob Zuma and Julius Malema, were kept out of government.
India
Epic in scale, India’s elections take place over several weeks, concluding in June. The surprise outcome was the failure of Narendra Modi to come out with an overall majority. He was able to form a government in coalition with regional politicians but he has already had to make major concessions, allocating billions to projects in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar states from where the new government draws coalition support. This has, unsurprisingly, led to states held by opposition parties to cry foul, requesting similar funding for their own territories, which shows the degree to which Modi’s power is now constrained by the election result.
Mexico
Another hugely important election took place in June, in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum became President-elect, with her inauguration due to take place in September. Sheinbaum will be the first woman to be its head of state; she is very much a protégé of the current president, the left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (widely known by his initials AMLO). She succeeds to a very patchy record: AMLO was good at centralising power but doesn’t seem to have been very good at knowing what to do with that power. On AMLO’s watch, Mexico has not made progress in the fight against serious crime and nor has it seen much progress in the struggle against corruption. AMLO took a Donald Trump-style approach to COVID, trying to pretend it didn’t really exist, as a result of which millions of Mexicans died. By contrast Sheinbaum comes with serious credentials as a scientist and environmentalist, but it is not necessarily clear whether she will be able to diverge from AMLO’s influence, as many of his most loyal lieutenants remain in her government.
Iran
The day after the British general election, Iran elected a new president, as a result of the death in May of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. The victorious candidate, Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, was the more liberal of the two, having criticised the hardline approach to enforcing a conservative dress-code on women. Pezeshkian is also keen to resume negotiations with the US to reopen the nuclear deal. But he could not be described as a liberal in any normal sense of that word, and Iran’s president is subordinate to its Supreme Leader (the clue’s in the name). Much has been made of the low turnout at Iranian elections, but turnout figures in US presidential elections have also been around 50 per cent on several occasions (including in the nail-biter that elected George W Bush) so I am not sure this is a hugely significant indicator. But it is clear that the tensions between hardliners and moderates has reached a particular high level which threatens to limit Pezeshkian’s ability to form an administration. Like many Iranian moderates, he may find that he has very limited room for manoeuvre.
France
Another country that was supposed by many media outlets to elect a right-wing populist government, France failed to do so and now finds itself facing great political uncertainty. At one point it looked quite possible that Lucie Castets, a little-known civil servant, might be appointed Prime Minister, perhaps taking a lead from The Netherlands’ example. But this has not happened and President Macron has decided not to appoint a government until after the Olympics. There have been lots of articles describing ‘chaos’ in France as a result - but this is merely political chaos. The organs of the state function more or less as usual and I suspect the Olympics will prove a great success, as they tend to in countries that like a spot of self-flagellation ahead of a major event and then turn out to have done a rather good job (2012, anyone?).
Venezuela
This troubled socialist paradise/failed petrostate (delete as applicable) elects its president on 28 July. Incumbent dictator Nicolas Maduro does not look particularly likely to honour a result that doesn’t go his way, but he is short of allies with even fellow socialist president Lula of Brazil calling on him to respect the result.
The Big Conclusion
Of course there isn’t one: all these countries are different, have different electoral systems, parties, political traditions and media environments. However, in most (if not all) cases, the worst case scenario (if you take a pro-liberal democracy view) has a habit of not coming true, and “the consolidation of national populism in Western democracies” so beloved of pseudo-scholars such as
keeps failing to happen. Even as Britain has kicked out its own national populist government, the most consequential election of the year is coming up in November. Whether the candidacy of Kamala Harris changes the growing consensus that this was Trump’s to lose, remains to be seen. Were he to lose, 2024 would have proved a poor year for the blood and soil brigade.
Great summary, Arthur. Two additional points:
- Indonesia is also the worlds largest Muslim country, and the second-biggest coal exporter.
- Modi made every effort to nobble his political rivals ahead of the election, and STILL didn’t manage to win a majority.
Thanks Arthur. A great article as always. Let’s hope trump loses to continue a better than expected year of election results.
You must have been very happy with the Lib Dems showing in the UK!