Time to learn about Iran's separatist movements
There are three fairly significant ongoing armed insurgencies
In the aftermath of Trump striking Iran, the chances of the Islamic Republic surviving seems slim. Whilst Trump himself claims the strikes on nuclear facilities are “one and done”, his Israeli allies have a very different view and are now committed to regime change. With that in prospect, it’s worth looking at what exists in Iran to replace the Ayatollah’s regime.
Iran is a large country with a very diverse, ethnically complex population which reflects its history as a major empire. If you think it’s a bit like Syria in that regard, it is, except that Syria’s population in 2011 (at the start of its civil war) was 21 million. Iran’s population in 2025 is over 90 million.
Within this vast population are some significant ethnic minorities that are currently in armed conflict with the Tehran government. There are two armed Kurdish separatist groups active in Iran that regularly engage in attacks against Iranian military installations in Kurdish areas. In Baluchestan (this is an Iranian province, not the neighbouring Pakistani province usually spelled ‘Baluchistan’ which also has armed insurgent groups) a Sunni militant group called Jaish ul-Adl has been actively targeting Iranian military and police outposts in the area and called on its population to rise up in the light of the Israel-US strikes. This group may have enjoyed CIA support over the years. Finally, of the major ethnic minorities, the Arab population in Khuzestan (the part of Iran closest to Basra in Iraq) has continued an ongoing insurgency for decades. It was these militants that occupied the Iranian embassy in London in 1980 - one of the most famous terrorist acts for which the underlying cause is hardly known at all.
In addition to these three groups there is also the Mujahideen e-Khalq (MEK), a long established leftist militant group whose bark is worse than its bite (its main activity appears to be mounting demonstrations in western cities) but still remains the capacity to mount armed attacks. And then there are further separatist monitories, including Azeris and Turkmen, albeit with far more limited resources.
It would be simplistic to argue that Iran will follow the pattern of the Syrian Civil War, but it is also the case that places with significant ethno-linguistic diversity can more easily fracture into disorder and chaos. Iran is a weak state that has been held together by a strong imperialist centre over centuries. Perhaps that is about to change.